Dangote and Local Refineries Can't Carry Us Alone: Petrol Supply Drops 20.6% as Imports Step In

Naija, the numbers are in, and they're telling a story we all feel at the pump. Domestic petrol supply from our local refineries took a serious hit in July 2026, falling by 20.6% to 25.8 million litres per day. That's down from the 32.5 million litres we were producing daily in June, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

But here's the twist: while our own refineries are struggling to keep up, imports are quietly rising to fill the gap. In July, imported petrol jumped to 19.7 million litres per day, up from 18.1 million litres in June. It's a classic Nigerian hustle: when one door closes, another one opens, even if it's a foreign one.

Why did domestic petrol supply fall in July?

This isn't a one-off stumble. The NMDPRA data shows we've been on a rollercoaster all year. January started strong with 40.1 million litres per day from domestic refineries. Then February crashed by 26.7% to 29.4 million litres. We bounced back in March and April, hitting a seven-month high of 41.5 million litres in May. But June and July have been sliding backwards, and July's 25.8 million litres is now the lowest we've seen all year. That's a 37.1% drop from where we started in January.

What's the cause? The NMDPRA report doesn't spell it out, but the pattern points to ongoing challenges in refinery operations, maintenance issues, or feedstock constraints. Whatever it is, it's a clear signal that relying on local production alone isn't cutting it right now.

How much petrol are we importing?

Imports have been the wild card this year. January saw a massive 24.8 million litres per day coming in from abroad. Then February went off a cliff, crashing by 87.9% to just 3 million litres. That was a scary month, with total supply falling to 32.4 million litres per day, the lowest combined figure of the period.

But imports have been climbing back steadily. March jumped 96.7% to 5.9 million litres. April dipped slightly to 3.7 million, then May held at 5.9 million. June was the game-changer: imports more than tripled to 18.1 million litres per day, a 206.8% surge. July kept the momentum going with an 8.8% rise to 19.7 million litres.

Still, we're not back to January's import levels. July's figure is 20.6% below that high point, which means we're still feeling the squeeze.

What does the total petrol supply picture look like?

When you combine domestic production and imports, the total supply in July was 45.5 million litres per day. That's a 10.1% drop from June's 50.6 million litres. It's the second straight month of decline, after we hit 47.4 million in May and then jumped to 50.6 million in June.

Here's the breakdown for July: local refineries provided 25.8 million litres, which is about 56.7% of the total. Imports covered the rest, 19.7 million litres or 43.3%. That's a heavy reliance on foreign fuel, and it's a reminder that we've still got work to do on energy independence.

What does this mean for Nigerians?

For the average Naija person, this data translates to one thing: supply is tight, and that can affect prices and availability. The Dangote refinery and other local players are doing their part, but they can't carry the whole country on their own yet. The increase in imports is a short-term fix, but it's not the long-term solution we need.

We have to ask ourselves: why are we still so dependent on imported fuel when we have the resources and the refineries? The answer lies in the bottlenecks, the infrastructure gaps, and the policies that haven't fully unlocked our potential. As a nation, we need to push for more investment in local refining capacity and ensure that our own resources benefit our own people first.

The numbers don't lie. We're making progress in some areas, but the journey to full energy independence is far from over. Stay sharp, Naija. This is our fight, and we'll win it on our own terms.